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“I accept your call to be a candidate for the 2024 presidential election,” said Prabowo, who is among the top three leading candidates in a number of opinion polls.

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According to a survey published in June by top newspaper Kompas, Prabowo is leading with 25.3 per cent. Ganjar Pranowo, the current governor of Central Java, is close behind with 22 per cent, while incumbent governor of Jakarta Anies Baswedan is ranked third with 12.6 per cent.

Prabowo, who was once married to a daughter of former dictator Suharto, has consistently positioned himself as a strongman who can make Southeast Asia’s largest economy a major power to be reckoned with.

Yet he had struggled to defeat Jokowi in the last highly-charged presidential race that was marred by identity politics. Soon after the tight 2019 presidential race in which Jokowi won 55.5 per cent of the vote, Indonesia’s Constitutional Court dismissed Prabowo’s allegations of systemic electoral fraud.

Prabowo’s candidacy is likely to draw strong support from hardline Islamic groups and parties in some of the most conservative regions such as West Java, West Sumatra and Aceh. These regions shored up his votes in the last election contest.

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Indonesia passes law to relocate capital from Jakarta to Borneo

Indonesia passes law to relocate capital from Jakarta to Borneo

“It’s wrong to think Indonesia could become Islamist should Prabowo come to power,” said Singapore-based Achmad Sukarsono, lead analyst for Indonesia at Control Risks. “He has to coalesce because he needs the votes. He will do a lot of things that would make him look like the symbol of Islamism.”

Investors will be watching to see if a new administration with different priorities could upend Jokowi’s vision of a new capital city powered by renewable energy that is set to complete by 2045.

Indonesia is looking to move its capital city from Jakarta to Borneo, which will be its biggest test to its economic superpower aspirations. The first phase of the US$34 billion project is due to be completed by August 2024, in line with its 79th year of independence from Dutch colonial rule.

Will West Sumatra’s new law lead to more Islamic conservatism in Indonesia?

A Prabowo presidency could mean a more centralised government with greater concentration of power, said Sukarsono. The politician championed this in the 2019 presidential race, saying that a government with greater powers could effectively counter corruption.

That isn’t necessarily a bad thing for businesses, some of which have complained Indonesia’s system is “too free” and that makes it harder to know who the real power brokers are, Sukarsono said.

Gerindra and Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa, one of the nation’s largest Muslim-based parties, declared a political alliance on Saturday, becoming the second such collaboration announced for the 2024 elections.

The two groups agreed to let their respective chairmen pick candidates for president and vice-president. They reiterated that the alliance was open to other parties.

“The coalition between Gerindra and PKB is based on a wish to join two powerful forces in Indonesia that is nationalism and religiosity to avoid polarisation in the 2024 elections,” said Gerindra central executive board head Sufmi Dasco Ahmad.

Golkar, the second-largest political party in Indonesia, had earlier declared a coalition with Muslim-based parties Partai Amanat Nasional and Partai Pesatuan Pembangunan.

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